Wins & Fame

It’s Hall of Fame consideration season.  Until the announcement of the new class, Connections will be looking at some of the names on the 2025 ballot. 

From July 8 through September 28, the 2008 Brewers played 73 games and won 41 of them, a .562 clip of success.  The endpoints of this stretch both resulted in victories, and were both, not coincidentally, started by CC Sabathia.  The midseason acquisition from Cleveland made 17 starts for Milwaukee during that entrancing summer and early fall, catapulting his new club to a 14-3 record (.824 winning %) in those events.  And “event” was an apt descriptor, for a Sabathia start became more than a ballgame: it was akin to seeing an actor at the height of his powers take the script and the set design and the supporting cast and create a transformative experience.  Bravo!

In all, Sabathia went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA over a mesmerizing 130.2 innings with Milwaukee.  Seven complete games – three shutouts – spoke to his willingness and, crucially, ability to shoulder an immense burden.  The disparity between Milwaukee’s winning percentage in his starts (that .824) versus all other contests (.482) was a testament to his outsize influence.  Somehow, he tied for both the AL and NL leads in shutouts and paced the Senior Circuit in complete games.  He posted the first 10-complete game/five-shutout season of the century (and the first since Randy Johnson in 1998, when that lefty offered his own interpretation on the “get-traded, go-bananas” script).  

Crucially, he led the Brewers to the club’s first postseason appearance in 26 years.  Eight years after he debuted as a 20-year-old, it felt – to those of us who had been swept up in the euphoria of seeing a midseason addition embody and manifest the ideal dream of what a new addition can provide – as if Sabathia had stamped his place in the game with a vivid and lasting imprint.  The Brewers needed wins in the worst way and Sabathia was almost pristine in supplying them.

A couple of years later, following 21 wins in 2010 as the Yankees’ ace, Sabathia had 157 victories on his report card.  A season earlier, Randy Johnson had become the latest member of the 300-win club and at the time, there was significant discussion on whether he’d be the last.  No, I hoped/believed, Sabathia can get there.  After all, those 157 victories had been pocketed before starting his age-30 season – he had more at that stage of his career than both Greg Maddux (150) and Roger Clemens (152).  He was taking the mound for the Yankees, a given in those years to win more than they lost.  There was enough on the surface to imagine a day when the portsider would meet up with Johnson, Maddux and Clemens in the 300-win club.  That’s what an ace so often does – allow one to dream big.

After another 19 in the wins column for 2011, that twin engine of hope and belief gathered a little extra thrust, for Sabathia’s recent ascent (95 wins in five seasons, starting with his Cy Young campaign in 2007) had lifted him into rarefied air:  tied for the 12th most victories for any hurler through his age-30 season in the modern era, the second most for any lefty (behind Hal Newhouser).  He was ahead of the respective paces of 300-game winners Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton, Tom Glavine, Tom Seaver, Maddux and Clemens and Johnson, Don Sutton and Nolan Ryan and Phil Niekro.  But since he was ahead of so many who had reached the heady milestone, who was he behind?  Uh-oh – that perspective didn’t bode so well, with only three of the dozen ultimately reaching 300 victories (Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson and Pete Alexander).  Uh-oh was right.

Sabathia’s final victory – his 251st – came on June 24, 2019 and matched him with Al Spalding and Bob Gibson for the 46th most ever, 13th among left-handers.  The dream of entry in the 300-win club had all but vanished a few years earlier, but – in terms of his Hall of Fame case – should it really matter?

There are just 24 hurlers who can claim at least 300 victories; all of them – save Roger Clemens – are in the Hall of Fame.  Realization of that milestone equates to, for all intents and purposes, a ticket to Cooperstown (Clemens’ saga is unique).  But, the numbers and narratives say, 250-plus wins is also pretty close to offering a lock.  In the modern era (I don’t believe the win tallies of the non-immortals from the 19th century are really germane to the consideration of Sabathia), there are 20 others who posted between 250 and 299 victories, including Justin Verlander and Sabathia.  Removing those two from the filtering process, 15 of the other 18 are Hall of Famers – the outsiders being a trio of lefties (interesting!):  Tommy John, Jamie Moyer and Andy Pettitte.  The relative numbers for between 200 and 249 wins breaks away from this strong relationship:  56 (non-active or not yet on a Hall of Fame ballot) pitchers since 1901 with a win tally in that range; only 17 of them in Cooperstown.  In a quick and dirty assessment, Sabathia cleared the real bar.  

The lefty’s case can call upon testimony beyond the number of times he recorded a win in his personal column.  There is the peak from 2007 through 2011 (Sabathia was first in wins, second in strikeouts and second in ERA+ for that five-year run, while throwing the most innings), a stretch that includes a Cy Young (and four other top-five finishes), that awesome tour for the Brewers in 2008, a pair of wins-crowns, an ALCS MVP and World Series trophy in 2009.  There is membership (one of 19) in the 3,000-K club.  There is his historic standing among southpaws:  the 13th most wins, third most strikeouts, 16th most innings pitched, 10th highest bWAR.  He threw more innings this century than any other pitcher, recorded more wins than anyone but Verlander, and punched out more batters than anyone aside from Verlander and Max Scherzer*.  He made 11 Opening Day starts, one of 14 pitchers since 1901 to have at least that many.

As he made his final tour to ballparks across the country in 2019,  Sabathia’s credentials were already being discussed and contextualized, were being framed within the Hall of Famer? discussion.  Without those 300 wins, he’s not an automatic.  Nor were his heights so high and dominating (à la Pedro Martínez) as to render the career wins discussion much lower in priority.  

Sabathia’s place in the story of starting pitching in this century is significant and widespread, narratively colorful and statistically plentiful.  His historical standing is robust, in line with the efforts and results of those already immortalized.  And for a few months, back in 2008, CC Sabathia was the center of the baseball universe.  If he does get elected – on this, his first year on the ballot or down the road – that run will be a smaller part of the overall story, for sure, but it will remain unforgettable. 

*If anyone is curious … starting in the present and going back to 1900, here are the hurlers who held top-three slots in the Majors for wins, strikeouts and innings pitched, for each quarter-century block.

2000-2024:  CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander

1975-1999:  no one

1950-1974:  Bob Gibson

1925-1949:  Lefty Grove

1900-1924:  Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson

Thanks to Baseball Reference and its extraordinary research database, Stathead, for help in assembling this piece.