Rookies can be like Spring Training: opportunities for optimism and rosy considerations of what could be, magnets for raising ceilings rather than lowering floors. A rookie who is in his very first season and who is notably young can magnify this hope, personifying a launchpad for imagined awe and splendor. And sometimes, those dreams of possibility become real: Dwight Gooden in 1984 or Mark Fidrych in 1976; Ted Williams in 1939 or Bryce Harper in 2012. The Senior Circuit landscape in 2024 witnessed a version of this spectacular confluence, most notably among the three finalists for the league’s Rookie of the Year Award.
For each of the three finalists, let’s focus on a component or two – numbers that made manifest how a young, first-year player can generate electricity. We’ll start with a dazzling 20-year-old in Milwaukee.
*Jackson Chourio*
~In the 124 seasons marking the AL-NL dynamic, 14 players in an age-20 or younger season have stolen 20+ bases. For some name-dropping, Ty Cobb, Rickey Henderson, Mike Trout and Jackson Chourio live within the collection.
~Over this same span and for the same age requirement, two dozen have amassed at least 20 home runs. Here, Chourio shares space with – among others – Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey, Jr., Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.
~Introduce the two clubs to one another and three names match: Trout in 2012, Vada Pinson in 1959 and Chourio in 2024. The Brewers outfielder in ’24 carries one distinction that sets him apart from the other two – he produced his 20-20 season in his debut campaign, while Pinson and Trout were playing in their second seasons.
~The highest bWAR, since 1901, for any first-year position player in an age-20 or younger season:
6.7 Ted Williams in 1939
6.5 Frank Robinson in 1956
6.4 Jason Heyward in 2010
5.2 Bryce Harper in 2012
4.8 Carlos Correa in 2015
4.4 Roberto Alomar in 1988
4.2 Fernando Tatis, Jr. in 2019
3.9 Arky Vaughan in 1932
3.9 Ronald Acuña, Jr. in 2018
3.8 Jackson Chourio in 2024
~ Since 1901, for any first-year player in an age-20 or younger season:
^Chourio tallied the sixth-most extra-base hits, with his 54 nestled between Ronald Acuña, Jr.’s 56 and Eddie Mathews’ 53. Ted Williams – with 86 – claims the most.
^Chourio amassed the fifth-most total bases. His 245 stands directly below Ted Williams’ 344, Frank Robinson’s 319, Orlando Cepeda’s 309 and Bryce Harper’s 254.
*Jackson Merrill*
~Playing in his debut season, 21-year-old Jackson Merrill contributed 61 extra-base hits (31 doubles, 6 triples, 24 homers). He’s one of 11 center fielders (at least 60% of games in center) to be in an age-21 or younger season and have that many. As you’ll see, he’s the lone representative to have done this in his first big league campaign.
Name | Year | XBH | Age-Season | Season # |
Vada Pinson | 1959 | 76 | 20 | 2nd |
Mike Trout | 2013 | 75 | 21 | 3rd |
Andruw Jones | 1998 | 72 | 21 | 3rd |
Vada Pinson | 1960 | 69 | 21 | 3rd |
César Cedeño | 1972 | 69 | 21 | 3rd |
Mickey Mantle | 1952 | 67 | 20 | 2nd |
Ken Griffey, Jr. | 1991 | 65 | 21 | 3rd |
Mike Trout | 2012 | 65 | 20 | 2nd |
Ronald Acuña, Jr. | 2019 | 65 | 21 | 2nd |
Juan González | 1991 | 62 | 21 | 3rd |
Jackson Merrill | 2024 | 61 | 21 | 1st |
~For all first-year players in an age-21 or younger season in NL-AL history, Merrill tied for the 12th-most homers, produced the 11th highest OPS+ and tied for the 12th-highest bWAR. Placing the requirement of at least 60% of games in center on top of the other criteria, the Padres sensation holds a top-five spot in all three categories.
Player | Year | HR |
Julio Rodríguez | 2022 | 28 |
Jackson Merrill | 2024 | 24 |
Bryce Harper | 2012 | 22 |
Michael Harris II | 2022 | 19 |
Barry Bonds | 1986 | 16 |
Ken Griffey, Jr. | 1989 | 16 |
Player | Year | OPS+ |
Julio Rodríguez | 2022 | 147 |
Jackson Merrill | 2024 | 127 |
Richie Ashburn | 1948 | 123 |
Bryce Harper | 2012 | 118 |
Lloyd Waner | 1927 | 109 |
Player | Year | bWAR |
Julio Rodríguez | 2022 | 6.2 |
Bryce Harper | 2012 | 5.2 |
Michael Harris II | 2022 | 5.2 |
Richie Ashburn | 1948 | 4.6 |
Jackson Merrill | 2024 | 4.4 |
*Paul Skenes*
~The Pirates’ right-hander showed an extraordinary dominance and proficiency in his first dance through the Major Leagues and assembled a statistical profile that boogies with some of the more astounding debuts in history. Using a minimum of 20 games started to provide the background music, here are Skenes’ numbers and ranks for all first-year hurlers since 1901.
Category & Skenes’ Tally | Skenes’ Rank | Leader & Tally (or Former Leader) |
.786 Winning % | 12 | Mike Nagy – .857 in 1969 |
214 ERA+ | 1 | Ed Reulbach – 209 in 1905 |
0.947 WHIP | 1 | Ed Reulbach – 0.963 in 1905 |
33.1 Strikeout % | 2 | Kerry Wood – 33.3 in 1998 |
5.31 K:BB Ratio | 7 | Masahiro Tanaka – 6.71 in 2014 |
~Skenes made 23 starts in 2024. For all hurlers in the liveball era, here’s his Triple Crown numbers in context with all others through their first 23 career outings.
^His 11 wins are way down on the list, coming in a tie for 72nd. Boo Ferris leads everyone, with 17 victories for the Red Sox in 1945.
^His 170 strikeouts ties for the sixth most. Hideo Nomo punched out 205 in 1995, one more than Kerry Wood whiffed in 1998. Dwight Gooden recorded 181 K’s in 1984 and then Mark Prior (178 in 2002-03) and Yu Darvish (172 in 2012) follow. Herb Score had 170 in 1955.
^His 1.96 ERA ranks as the second lowest (min. 115.0 innings). Al Brazle posted a 1.85 in his first 23 games (which included 14 starts). If one manipulates the criteria to sift through all hurlers with at least 20 starts in their first 23 outings, the five lowest ERA’s look like this:
1.96 for Paul Skenes in 2024
2.00 for Boo Ferriss in 1945
2.05 for Steve Rogers in 1973-74
2.11 for Mark Fidrych in 1976
2.21 for Butch Wensloff in 1943
2.21 for Art Mahaffey in 1960-61
Thanks to Baseball Reference and its extraordinary research database, Stathead, for help in assembling this piece.
Roger Schlueter
As Sr. Editorial Director for Major League Baseball Productions from 2004-2015, Roger served as a hub for hundreds of hours of films, series, documentaries and features: as researcher, fact-checker, script doctor, and developer of ideas. The years at MLB Production gave him the ideal platform to pursue what galvanized him the most – the idea that so much of what takes place on the field during the MLB regular and postseason (and is forever beautifully condensed into a box score) has connections to what has come before. Unearthing and celebrating these webs allows baseball to thrive, for the present can come alive and also reignite the past.