Thanks to a pair of Triple Crown winners, the 2024 Cy Young Award races appear to hold little drama for the unveiling. Since the award has been bestowed on an ace or aces of the season (1956), a Triple Crown winner has now emerged to tilt the balance 16 times. The wins/K’s/ERA leaders (before 2024 either continues the trend or powerfully disrupts it), are 14-for-14 in also making room on their mantle for a Cy Young Award.
If there’s little suspense building to the 2024 announcement, there was plenty of drama registered in that soulful space between mound and plate from April through September. There was a first-year right-hander with equal abilities to dominate and captivate; there was a mid-30’s righty adding another splendid demonstration to his half-decade of oohs; and finally, there was a southpaw who added an unforeseen act to his 14-year drama, a tale of rebirth and remembrance for when he was a legitimate contender to take home a Cy Young Award every single year.
Let’s take a look at some of the intriguing elements to each of the finalists’ stories, starting with a 22-year-old for whom the word phenom applies in all its spectacular array.
*Paul Skenes*
~Through a number of lenses, Paul Skenes produced an historic rate stat line in 2024. Some of his brilliance has already been covered. Below, we’ll look at his first season in the Major Leagues through the age filter. Skenes’ season came in his age-22 campaign.
Since 1901, for all NL/AL pitchers in their age-22 or younger seasons (min. 20 starts):
^Skenes produced the third best ERA+, at 214.
In 1914, 22-year-old Dutch Leonard authored a 279 while in his second big league season.
As a sophomore in 1985, 20-year-old Dwight Gooden posted a 229.
After Skenes, Ed Reulbach (209) holes up in the fourth slot for his debut season in 1905, when he was 22.
Walter Johnson (1910) and Vida Blue (1971) share fifth place, with a 183. Johnson was pitching in his fourth season as a 22-year-old and Blue was in his third campaign, one in which he turned 22.
^Skenes compiled the fourth lowest WHIP, with a 0.947. The top-five is mainly made up of the same names that populated the ERA+ group:
0.886 Dutch Leonard (1914)
0.914 Walter Johnson (1910)
0.939 Harry Krause in 1909 (his age-20 season & second big league campaign)
0.947 Paul Skenes (2024)
0.952 Vida Blue (1971)
^Skenes produced the second highest strikeout percentage, at 33.1. In his debut season in 1998, 20/21-year-old Kerry Wood fanned 33.3% of all batters he faced. Gooden – with a 31.4 in 1984 – comes in third. Hunter Greene (30.9% in 2022) and Óliver Pérez (29.7% in 2004) make up the rest of the top-five.
^Skenes generated the second best K:BB ratio.
5.35 Noah Syndergaard in 2015: age-22 season & first big league campaign
5.31 Paul Skenes (2024)
4.90 Mark Prior in 2003: age-22 season & second big league campaign
4.34 Roger Clemens in 1984: age-21 season & first big league campaign
4.16 Bret Saberhagen in 1985: age-21 season & second big league campaign
^Skenes’ OPS+-against comes in at 54. For this one, our terrain only covers “since 1912,” but the company remains whistle-worthy:
44 Dutch Leonard in 1914
48 José Fernández in 2013 – his age-20 campaign & first big league season
51 Smoky Joe Wood in 1912 – his age-22 campaign & fifth big league season
52 Dwight Gooden in 1985
54 Paul Skenes in 2024
~Despite making his Major League debut on May 11 and contributing only 133.0 innings, Skenes still produced a bWAR of 5.9, which was fifth best in the Majors. For all hurlers in the liveball era in their first seasons, that value comes in as the eighth best.
1976 Mark Fidrych with a 9.6
1934 Curt Davis with an 8.6
1927 Wilcy Moore with a 6.6
1967 Gary Nolan with a 6.3
2013 José Fernández with a 6.2
2003 Brandon Webb with a 6.1
1967 Tom Seaver with a 6.0
2024 Paul Skenes with a 5.9
*Zack Wheeler*
~Wheeler paced all NL qualified hurlers with a 6.3 hits per nine and a 0.955 WHIP. Additionally, he amassed 200.0 innings and fanned 10.1 batters per nine innings. This stated profile hasn’t been seen too many times in baseball history, although it’s become more prevalent in today’s environment.
200.0+ IP
Hits/9 less below 6.5
WHIP below 1.000
K/9 at or above 10.0
| Pitcher | Year | H/9 | WHIP | K/9 | IP |
| Sandy Koufax | 1965 | 5.8 | 0.855 | 10.2 | 335.2 |
| Mike Scott | 1986 | 5.9 | 0.923 | 10.0 | 275.1 |
| Pedro Martínez | 1997 | 5.9 | 0.932 | 11.4 | 241.1 |
| Pedro Martínez | 2000 | 5.3 | 0.737 | 11.8 | 217.0 |
| Johan Santana | 2004 | 6.2 | 0.921 | 10.5 | 228.0 |
| Max Scherzer | 2013 | 6.4 | 0.970 | 10.1 | 214.1 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 2015 | 6.3 | 0.881 | 11.6 | 232.2 |
| Max Scherzer | 2017 | 5.7 | 0.902 | 12.0 | 200.2 |
| Corey Kluber | 2017 | 6.2 | 0.869 | 11.7 | 203.2 |
| Max Scherzer | 2018 | 6.1 | 0.911 | 12.2 | 220.2 |
| Jacob deGrom | 2018 | 6.3 | 0.912 | 11.2 | 217.0 |
| Justin Verlander | 2019 | 5.5 | 0.803 | 12.1 | 223.0 |
| Gerrit Cole | 2019 | 6.0 | 0.895 | 13.8 | 212.1 |
| Corbin Burnes | 2022 | 6.4 | 0.965 | 10.8 | 202.0 |
| Zack Wheeler | 2024 | 6.3 | 0.955 | 10.1 | 200.0 |
~Since joining the Phillies for the start of the 2020 season, the right-hander has been one of the more accomplished moundsmen across the Majors. In this five-year span, he’s one of 39 pitchers to log at least 600.0 innings (his 829.1 are the second most in the big leagues, behind his rotation-mate Aaron Nola’s 850.0). Among this collection of dependable dealers, Wheeler’s rate stats position themselves thusly:
^ 2.94 ERA, which is the third lowest
^ 142 ERA+, which is tied for second best
^ 1.031 WHIP, which is the third lowest
^ 7.2 hits per nine, which is the third lowest
^ 2.0 walks per nine, which is tied for the third lowest
^ 9.8 strikeouts per nine, which is tied for 10th best
^ 4.81 K:BB ratio, which is the third best
~Wheeler’s counting stats since 2020 also make for sturdy placement. His 899 strikeouts are the sixth most and his 59 victories ties for the second most.
~Put all of this (the rate numbers and counting stats) together, sprinkle in some environmental factors, and Wheeler’s 25.4 bWAR since 2020 is the best in the land, pretty far ahead of his closest competitor, Gerrit Cole (19.9).
~Wheeler’s 2024 campaign marked his third with Philadelphia in which he qualified for the ERA title and posted an ERA+ of at least 150. Only Steve Carlton – who had four such seasons for the Phillies – produced more. Wheeler is matched with Pete Alexander, with that duo ahead of Roy Halladay and his pair.
*Chris Sale*
~Thanks to his 18 victories, 2.38 ERA and 225 strikeouts, Sale joined the Triple Crown club – one of 35 in the NL/AL era to make this kind of mark on a season’s leaderboards. He and Tarik Skubal – who also wears a crown for his 2024 campaign – are two of 12 different southpaws to pace their league in the three categories. They join Rube Waddell (1905), Hippo Vaughn (1918), Lefty Grove (1930 and 1931), Lefty Gomez (1934 and 1937), Hal Newhouser (1945), Sandy Koufax (1963, 1965, 1966), Steve Carlton (1972), Randy Johnson (2002), Johan Santana (2006) and Clayton Kershaw (2011). In a more rarified action, Sale became the very first Brave in the modern era to capture the crown. Before he climbed this throne to don his headwear, eight Braves hurlers led the NL in two of the three categories.
Warren Spahn in 1949: leads in wins and strikeouts, sixth in ERA
Warren Spahn in 1950: leads in wins and strikeouts, sixth in ERA
Warren Spahn in 1953: leads in wins and ERA, fifth in strikeouts
Warren Spahn in 1961: leads in wins and ERA, 14th in strikeouts
Greg Maddux in 1994: leads in wins and ERA, third in strikeouts
Greg Maddux in 1995: leads in wins and ERA, third in strikeouts
John Smoltz in 1996: leads in wins and strikeouts, fourth in ERA
Spencer Strider in 2023: leads in wins and strikeouts, t-12th in ERA
~Looking away from the Triple Crown numbers, Sale’s 2024 also shows a 174 ERA+ and 32.1 strikeout percentage. Three different lefties have had a season in which they fanned at least 32% of the batters they faced while posting an ERA+ of at least 170. Randy Johnson did this six times while Clayton Kershaw managed the feat in 2015.
~On the quirkier, but still meaningful side, Sale allowed just nine homers. There’s a couple of hmmm, I wonder ways to go with this data point.
^With his 18 victories, Sale doubled up his homers-allowed tally. This century has seen four other southpaws who qualified for the ERA title and turned this trick. Dallas Keuchel did in the truncated 2020 season (he won six games and allowed two homers). Those to perform the feat over a 162-game season: Clayton Kershaw in 2014, Gio González in 2012 and Dontrelle Willis in 2005.
^Sale’s blend of strikeouts and homers allowed – per nine innings – is a rare variety. Five qualified hurlers have posted a season in which they fanned at least 11.4 batters per nine innings while surrendering no more than 0.5 homers per nine. Dwight Gooden was the first to do it, in his rookie campaign in 1984. Randy Johnson (1995) and Pedro Martínez (1999) represent the 1990s, and then Corbin Burnes (2021) had been the most recent, until Sale in 2024.
~Before Sale in 2024, the last left-hander in an age-35 or older season to:
Lead his league in wins – Randy Johnson in 2002
Lead his league in strikeouts – Randy Johnson in 2004
Lead his league in ERA – Randy Johnson in 2002
Thanks to Baseball Reference and its extraordinary research database, Stathead, for help in assembling this piece.
Roger Schlueter
As Sr. Editorial Director for Major League Baseball Productions from 2004-2015, Roger served as a hub for hundreds of hours of films, series, documentaries and features: as researcher, fact-checker, script doctor, and developer of ideas. The years at MLB Production gave him the ideal platform to pursue what galvanized him the most – the idea that so much of what takes place on the field during the MLB regular and postseason (and is forever beautifully condensed into a box score) has connections to what has come before. Unearthing and celebrating these webs allows baseball to thrive, for the present can come alive and also reignite the past.